Way-Too-Early 2026 NFL Draft QB Rankings: Finding Future Value in Mendoza, Simpson, and Nussmeier
By Oddixa —
We dive into the early top prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft class, highlighting the development of Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson, and Garrett Nussmeier as potential first-round targets.
Scouting the Future: The 2026 Quarterback Landscape
While the NFL betting world is currently laser-focused on the 2024 season and the upcoming 2025 draft class, savvy bettors and dynasty managers are already looking one step further. The 2026 NFL Draft class is beginning to take shape, and the quarterback position—always the biggest needle-mover in sports betting markets—features a fascinating mix of high-ceiling projects and battle-tested starters.
At Oddixa, we know that understanding the developmental arc of these signal-callers is key to predicting future Heisman Trophy odds and eventual NFL success. Here is a breakdown of the top names emerging in the 2026 cycle.
The Rise of Fernando Mendoza (Cal)
Perhaps the most intriguing name on the early 2026 board is California’s Fernando Mendoza. Standing at 6'5", Mendoza possesses the prototypical frame that NFL scouts crave. However, it isn't just his size that has caught the attention of analysts; it is his rapid processing speed and ability to navigate a muddy pocket.
From a betting perspective, Mendoza is a name to watch in the "Most Improved" and "All-Conference" markets. If he continues to refine his decision-making under pressure, he could easily climb from a mid-round projection into the Round 1 conversation. His ability to lead a Cal team through a tough schedule will be the ultimate litmus test for his NFL readiness.
Ty Simpson: The Pedigree Play at Alabama
In the modern era of college football, patience is a rare virtue. Ty Simpson, the former five-star recruit at Alabama, has shown that patience can pay off. While he has spent time behind Jalen Milroe, the flashes Simpson has shown during limited action suggest a world-class arm and elite mobility.
For bettors looking at future Heisman markets for the 2025 season (leading into the 2026 draft), Simpson is a prime candidate for a "breakout year" wager. Historically, Alabama quarterbacks are institutional locks for high draft slots. If Simpson secures the full-time starting job and executes Kalen DeBoer's offense, his draft stock will skyrocket, making him a potential favorite for the #1 overall pick.
Garrett Nussmeier: The Professional Archetype
LSU has become a quarterback factory in recent years, and Garrett Nussmeier is next in line to carry the mantle. Unlike some of his more mobile peers, Nussmeier is a pure pocket passer with elite ball placement and a "gunslinger" mentality.
What makes Nussmeier relevant to bettors today? It’s his consistency. LSU’s offensive scheme consistently produces high-flying numbers, which often leads to "Over" results on team totals and player props. As he prepares for the 2026 draft, scouts will be looking at his ability to limit turnovers. If he can pair his high-volume passing with better efficiency, he is a safe bet to be one of the first three quarterbacks off the board.
The Betting Impact: Why Early Rankings Matter
Why should a sports bettor care about a draft class that is nearly two years away? The answer lies in market inefficiency. Early rankings influence:
1. Heisman Trophy Futures: Identifying the top QBs for 2026 allows you to get in early on 2025 Heisman odds before the mainstream media catches up.
2. College Football Playoffs: Teams with NFL-caliber quarterbacks are statistically more likely to cover large spreads and make deep playoff runs.
3. Draft Position Over/Unders: Establishing a baseline for these players now helps you identify value when the sportsbooks eventually release "First QB Drafted" markets.
Other Names to Monitor
Beyond the big three, the 2026 class features several high-upside players who could disrupt the rankings:
- Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma): A dual-threat weapon who fits the mold of the modern NFL playmaker.
- Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee): Boasts perhaps the highest raw ceiling in the class due to his arm strength and frame.
- Arch Manning (Texas): The name alone will drive betting volume, but his development under Steve Sarkisian suggests the talent matches the hype.
Conclusion: A Class Defined by Potential
The 2026 QB class is currently a blank canvas, but Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson, and Garrett Nussmeier are the first bold strokes. For the dedicated bettor, these aren't just names on a list—they are data points for future profitability. Stay tuned to Oddixa as we continue to track their progress from Saturday afternoons to the NFL stage.