Sean Payton’s ‘What If’ Moment: How Close the Saints Came to Drafting Patrick Mahomes
By Oddixa —
Sean Payton reflects on the 2017 NFL Draft, revealing that the New Orleans Saints were seconds away from pairing Patrick Mahomes with Drew Brees before the Chiefs jumped the queue.
The Draft Day Drama: Sean Payton’s Near-Miss with Patrick Mahomes
In the high-stakes world of the NFL, a single draft pick can alter the course of league history—and sports betting markets—for a generation. Recently, Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton sat down with Rich Eisen to recount a story that still haunts the "what if" corridors of New Orleans: the time the Saints almost drafted Patrick Mahomes.
Heading into the 2017 NFL Draft, the Saints were looking for an eventual successor to the legendary Drew Brees. While the rest of the league was divided on the raw but talented gunslinger from Texas Tech, Payton and his scouting department were sold. They weren't just interested; they were ready to pull the trigger.
The Room Where It Happened
Payton described the atmosphere in the Saints' draft room as the first round unfolded. Armed with the 11th overall pick, New Orleans watched the board intently. According to Payton, Mahomes was the top-rated player on their board at that spot. The plan was simple: secure the future face of the franchise and let him develop under Brees' tutelage.
However, in a move that has since become legendary in NFL circles, the Kansas City Chiefs orchestrated a massive trade with the Buffalo Bills to jump from the 27th spot up to 10th. With that one-spot leap, Andy Reid snatched Mahomes right out from under Payton’s nose. The Saints, left to pivot, eventually selected cornerback Marshon Lattimore at 11.
Betting Implications: The Mahomes Multiplier
For sports bettors, this revelation is more than just a trip down memory lane. It serves as a reminder of how thin the margins are when evaluating long-term futures and dynasty potential.
1. The Super Bowl Window
Since 2017, the Chiefs have been a perennial favorite in Super Bowl betting markets. Had Mahomes landed in the NFC South with Payton’s offensive mind and the dome in New Orleans, the Saints would likely have remained a +500 to +800 Super Bowl contender long after Brees retired. Instead, the Saints have struggled with quarterback consistency, affecting their Week 1 spread reliability and Ove/Under totals for years.
2. Player Props and Offensive Efficiency
Sean Payton’s systems are famous for maximizing quarterback efficiency. While Mahomes has thrived in Kansas City, bettors can only imagine the statistical output he might have produced in a Payton offense that turned Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston into fantasy-relevant starters. Under Payton, Mahomes might have shattered even more passing yardage records, consistently hitting the "Over" on season-long player props.
3. The Power of the Pivot
While the Saints missed out on a generational QB, they landed Marshon Lattimore, who became a Defensive Rookie of the Year and a cornerstone of their secondary. For bettors, this highlights the importance of looking at how a team recovers from a draft-day disappointment. The Saints remained a top-tier defensive betting play for years because of that "consolation prize."
The Legacy of the 2017 Draft
The 2017 draft is now viewed as a turning point in modern football. Mahomes has since led the Chiefs to multiple titles, becoming the gold standard for NFL MVP betting. Meanwhile, Sean Payton eventually moved on to Denver, where he is currently tasked with finding that same spark in a new roster.
For the Oddixa community, this story underscores a vital lesson: the draft isn't just about who a team gets, but who they almost got. When placing long-term futures bets on a franchise's direction, understanding a coach's evaluation process—like Payton’s early identification of Mahomes—can give you an edge in predicting which teams are one move away from a dynasty.